Reasoned Library · Oct 18, 2026

Raise rates again in October

3 reasons3 sources

The Fed raises its target range by at least a quarter point at its meeting ending 28 October, as most officials signalled in September.

Reasons

1.
Inflation is no longer only about fuel: prices excluding food and energy are rising again.
- RIA: CPI hotter than expected – is a hike back on the table? (realinvestmentadvice.com)
- Supports
  Economists report that the energy shock is starting to push up the prices of other goods and services.
  - The Spokesman-Review (AP): Energy, gas costs push inflation higher. Paychecks are lagging behind (spokesman.com)
Objections
- Hold and look through the fuel shock · Overstated
  Core inflation of 2.6% is close to the Fed’s 2% target, and a month earlier it was the lowest since 2021.
  - RIA: CPI hotter than expected – is a hike back on the table? (realinvestmentadvice.com)
2.
If the Fed waits, people and businesses may start to expect high inflation to last, and that makes it much harder to bring down.
source requested · 1
Objections
- Hold and look through the fuel shock · Doesn’t follow
  Expectations follow the prices people see, and a rate hike doesn’t lower the price at the pump.
3.
The Fed signalled another hike in September; backing away now would cost it credibility.
- CNBC: Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year (cnbc.com)
- RIA: CPI hotter than expected – is a hike back on the table? (realinvestmentadvice.com)
Objections
- Hold and look through the fuel shock · Leaves something out
  That signal came before the September jobs report showed only 29,000 new jobs.
  - The Spokesman-Review (AP): Energy, gas costs push inflation higher. Paychecks are lagging behind (spokesman.com)

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